Saw this today on the BBC Website - the UK Road Death Map.
A number of things.
Firstly - I was pleased to see only 2,538 road deaths in 2008. That's a pretty good percentage of the total population - not even 0.0043% of our resident 60m.
I'm no mathematician, but by my reckoning that equates to a 1 in 14 Billion* chance of dying in a car crash in the UK.
That's pretty good odds. There aren't even half that many people in the world.
So statistically speaking, in order to die in a car accident, I would have to wait for every single person of the current 6 Billion in the world to die in a car crash first. Then I could wait for the world to re-populate again to the same levels and the further 6 Billion to also all die in a car crash. Even then, I'd still be able to wait for the world to re-populate yet again to nearly 2 Billion, wait for them to all die in a car crash and only then would it (As I say, statistically speaking) be my turn to die in a car crash.
I also noticed a further stat that said in the Metropolitan area of London that I live in, 203 of the 2,538 deaths in 2008 occurred here. Based on the fact that 5.5 million people live in London, plus a further 2.5 million commute to work here every day(source), this means I have 203 chances in 8 Million of dying in London. Using the same cod-maths as before that's a 0.0026% chance so my odds are getting better still - That's a 1 in 23 Billion chance!
This all means my chances of actually dying in a car crash are pretty minimal. That makes it a pretty happy statistic. I will probably now lessen the attention I pay at pedestrian crossings and no longer bother with my seat belt.
HOWEVER - I then noticed that of those 203 London deaths - 143 were males - That's 71%! Which meant I had to reduce my odds accordingly - I can't tell you how I did this as I don't know myself, but the end result is that I am now a 100% certainly to die on the streets of London under a bus within the next 2months.
What a shitter!!!
*How did I work this out? Well - 0.0043% x 233 = 1%. So if we do 60m x 233 = 13,980m. Does that work? I don't know, as I said I'm no mathematician but I like the sound of it so let's pretend it does as it makes the post more interesting.
Indeed, 13,980m is correct, and you could actually round it up to 14m, that is: 14 metres - for UK residents: 45' - 11 2/10" (in feet, inches and tenths-of-an-inch) - which represents the distance of your calculated numbers from the numbers you would get when using correct data sets and applying correct formulas. (Not that that it would make any difference to your - or anybody else’s - chances of being involved in a car accident.)
ReplyDeleteI will not be held back by your frankly archaic view of what is 'accepted' mathematical practice.
ReplyDeleteI stand by my calculations.
Are you insinuating the metric system is archaic? Length units used in UK, like the Henry I's foot (even if "calibrated") are much older – just that you know.
ReplyDeleteyou have a 2538 in 60m chance (1st number accurate, second obviously rounded). To get to 1 in x you need to divide both sides by 2538. So its 1 in 23640 chance of dying in the road (not 1 in 14 billion heh pew pew dear oh dear). FEAR THE ROADS!!!
ReplyDeleteIs the above Anonymous a new reader, I mean... Reader Number Four?
ReplyDelete